By Chris Edwards
[email protected]
Before this year’s Atlantic Hurricane Season began on June 1, researchers and scientists predicted an “extremely active” year.
Now, according to forecasting, those same weather and climate experts are calling for a “slightly increased” forecast for the season.
“Sea surface temperatures averaged across the hurricane Main Development Region of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean remain near record warm levels,” a report from the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University (CSU) read. In June, reporting from that same think tank had the number of named storms forecasted at 23, but the most recent forecast has the number at 25.
Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at CSU, stated that “Hurricane Beryl, a deep tropical Category 5 hurricane, is also a likely harbinger of a hyperactive season.”
Klotzbach said his team’s confidence is “higher than normal” based on the strength and persistence of the current hurricane-favorable large scale environmental conditions in their July forecast. Much of that owes to cool neutral La Nina conditions at the peak of the season, which typically increase hurricane activity through decreases in vertical wind shear, according to to Klotzbach.
Typically, the month of August is when tropical activity ramps up, with September being the average peak month, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
As of Monday, reports showed that an area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic, near the Leeward Islands and Greater Antilles, was expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave within days.
Those conditions were forecast to become conducive for “some development,” according to NHC predictions, namely a tropical depression that could form later in the week.
Klotzbach and his team have the probabilities for at least one major hurricane to make landfall on the entire continental U.S. coastline at 57%, which is up from the full season average of 43%.
A “major hurricane,” by their definition is a Category 3,4 or 5 event.
The probability of a major hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville is 38% by their calculations. The season average here is 27%.
“Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Thorough preparations should be made for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted,” said Klotzbach.
The Atlantic Hurricane Season ends on Nov. 30.
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