By Chris Edwards
[email protected]
Saturday, June 1 marks the beginning of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and the consensus from researchers is that this will be an active year, courtesy of La Nina.
According to recently released predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Weather Service, there is an 85% chance of an above normal season for tropical activity.
An El Nino pattern has been in control of weather patterns since June of last year, however, the transition into La Nina status, as expected, could result in decreased wind shear, which is the change in wind speed and/or direction with height. Experts state that this factor could help enhance development of hurricanes across formation zones.
Reports from Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane researchers noted that 2024 held the highest prediction rate for named storms that the team had ever issued, and that if it were accurate, the National Hurricane Center would use all of the names on the 2024 Atlantic storm list, and have to resort to an additional list of tropical cyclone names, which has not happened since 2020.
Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at CSU, said in a news release, that the “record warm” temps in the tropical Atlantic helps to provide “more fuel for storms.”
“The El Nino is weakening, likely to transition to a La Nina. That’s colder water in the eastern and central tropical Pacific, typically in the more hurricane-favorable upper-level wind patterns in the Atlantic,” Klotzbach said.
The annual average is a total of 14 named storms during hurricane season; seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, but this year, there are 17 to 25 named storms; eight to 13 hurricanes and four to seven major hurricanes predicted.
Klotzbach said that CSU’s outlook stated there is a 62% chance that a major hurricane will make landfall along the United States coastline, which is 19% higher than average, he noted.
Despite all of these predictions as the season begins in a matter of days, there is still plenty of time for variances, as “things…could potentially change,” he said.
Klotzbach noted that in 2022, there were no storms in August, but the season ended up with eight hurricanes.
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